The thirteenth Glasman Lecture: The changing influences across the world

House of Lords event write up 17th July 2024

The thirteenth Glasman Lecture: The changing influences across the world

A nimble start

65 booked attendees waited half an hour outside the House of Lords to be told that the event had been cancelled ! But read on....!

Thanks to FRP Advisory for sponsoring the event continually for the 13th time and to Lord Godson at the Policy Exchange, who agreed to host at 10 minutes notice at 1 Old Queen Street, nearby.

When we booked the event who would have known that there would be a momentous general election and a King's speech the day after our event booking. Security at Westminster was at a maximum.

Who would have thought too, in 2019 when Boris was elected on a majority of 80 seats, that just 4 years later a labour government would be writing the speech with a majority of 411 seats to 121.

Maurice weaved his way through the visible shifts across Europe where, ironically the political shift is to the right whilst UK in its own inimitable style has voted in a left wing government.

A new paradigm

The old assumptions of wealth creation are changing.

Maurice asserts that globalisation predicted a utopia where nation states were no longer necessary. A world where freedom of movement existed and there was almost no need for national government and where rights predominated over responsibility. A secure world.

But that global world is not actually a peaceful place at all. China, was to be the manufacturing centre for Western product has become a manufacturing and military superpower. That was never in the forecast!

The US in relative terms is no longer a hegemon, capable of dictating world politics.

Industrial capability

The proposition of Maurice is that power rests with industrial capability. Transferring industrial manufacturing capability to China was a mistake of the West that has left it in a much weaker position politically.

Ukraine

It has become clear that the Ukrainian conflict is also about a grab for assets under the ground in titanium, lithium, graphite and uranium, which Ukraine has in vast quantities.

These resources are essential to enable the move to greening the planet. Something that China has a huge vested interest in.

The EU

Maurice pointed out just how much the EU is stifled by inaction, and inability to make decisions; being dependant on its own superpowers Germany and France, the latter of which is in political turmoil and a Germany that decided to close its nuclear capabilities and run down fossil fuel production, making itself wholly reliant for its industrial production on gas from Russia.

Meanwhile China has declared to Russia that "there are no limits to their cooperation."

This manifests in a situation where Russia has doubled its output in weapons whilst the EU looks on and Germany de-industrialises as the cost of energy makes it uncompetitive.

In summary the old order has changed for good, where the US was able to step in as the only major superpower.

The future of manufacturing in Britain

Access to raw materials is therefore critical and this is actually a root cause of conflict in Ukraine that had not hitherto been recognised. (Maurice has spent the most of 'abroad-time' in Ukraine since the conflict started).

Maurice is one of the few British politicians that has shown an interest in building a solid bridge between Ukraine and the UK.

An amazing prediction

Ironic but the opportunity for Britain and the likely strategy is that the UK will re-arm and invest in weapons production and that this will be the bedrock for an industrial strategy that Britain has not had since the war.

Outside of the EU, autonomous weapons production is where the UK can once again become significantly influential in the world whilst building wealth for its people.

An audience in rapture listened as Lord Glasman outlined this vision for Britain that just 4 years ago would have been unthinkable.

Summing up

Glasman has an uncanny ability of being right with the benefit of hindsight. The digital economy, globalisation, the concept that nation states have no place, is broken. That's his hypothesis.

Moving to an industrial economy with hard vocational skills around manufacturing is where he sees opportunity for Britain.

Kier Starmer has become prime minister at an incredibly pivotal moment for Britain. As Trump will reduce military support, as the EU lies in political paralysis Britain will be able to move to unilateral manufacture of weapons that the EU cannot do. This is important because currently joint French/British missiles cannot be deployed without French (and EU) permission.

The clear and consistent message from Ukraine and indeed most of the former Eastern block is that the UK is a friend that understands that world peace depends on having an ability to defend borders.

Wake up City of London

The message for our group is that investment from the city of London is not apparent in Kiev, yet the Germans and Americans are commonplace in the investment centres of Ukraine.

Our government is negotiating with Ukraine for access to resources, raw materials. What is apparent in summary is that Russia's aggression is not the product of one madman's fantasy but part of a much wider industrial strategy!

Adrian Doble

TMA UK Director